🦠 COVID-19: A Year-Round Concern Despite being a familiar threat, SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19, still doesn’t follow a seasonal pattern. It circulates year-round, and scientists are preparing for the possibility of a summer wave for the fifth consecutive year.
😷 Expectations vs. Reality Many hoped that COVID-19 would become a seasonal illness, like the cold and flu, providing a respite during the warmer months. However, this has not happened yet. According to Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious diseases specialist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the virus is still too new and evolving too rapidly to establish a predictable pattern.
🧬 Ongoing Evolution SARS-CoV-2 is still adapting. Its spike protein, which helps the virus infect cells, continues to mutate. This rapid evolution is driven by the immunity people have developed, either through infection or vaccination.
🔬 Tracking New Variants Scientists are monitoring several new variants of SARS-CoV-2, such as JN.1, KP.2, KP.3, and LB.1, which are all offshoots of Omicron. These variants are more contagious and can bypass immunity from vaccines or prior infections, allowing for repeated infections.
📈 Current Trends Recent data from the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) shows varying trends in SARS-CoV-2 levels, with some regions reporting increases. This unpredictability makes it challenging to determine future infection patterns.
🌡️ Potential Summer Wave Experts like Dr. Zain Chagla of McMaster University suggest that we could see a wave of COVID-19 infections towards the end of summer, similar to previous years with Omicron.
🏥 Ongoing Impact Although overall case counts and death rates have decreased, COVID-19 continues to cause hospitalizations and deaths, particularly among vulnerable populations. Some older adults and immunocompromised individuals still face severe illness and death from the virus.
📊 Comparative Mortality COVID-19 remains more deadly than influenza. For example, in one week in May 2023, 23 people in Canada died of COVID-19, highlighting its ongoing threat.
🛡️ Vaccination Importance High-risk groups, such as older adults and those with underlying health conditions, should stay up-to-date on vaccinations. However, vaccine uptake has declined, with fewer than 20% of Canadians receiving the latest shots. Even among the most vulnerable, only 53% of adults aged 80 and up had their latest vaccination.
💉 Vaccine Challenges While COVID-19 vaccines are continually updated to match circulating strains, there is often a lag between the emergence of new variants and the approval of matched vaccines. This delay means the virus can continue to spread and mutate.
🔮 Future Outlook Achieving vaccines that prevent transmission would be a significant breakthrough. Until then, predicting when SARS-CoV-2 will become more seasonal and predictable remains uncertain. As Dr. Nitin Mohan humorously notes, predicting the virus’s future is as uncertain as guessing when the Leafs will win the Stanley Cup.
